Classified: “Becoming Superhuman” teaches the science of productivity, performance, and wellness

“Classified” is a series spotlighting some of the more powerful lessons faculty are teaching in Haas classrooms.

Sahar Yousef
Sahar Yousef

Sahar Yousef stood before a packed room in Connie & Kevin Chou Hall in early March and recited some grim statistics. Productivity growth in the U.S. has been stagnant for nearly 15 years. The average knowledge worker gets interrupted every 90 seconds. Seventy-six percent of workers say they feel chronically drained by day’s end, and 96% percent of senior business leaders are on the verge of burnout.

The fact is that despite an abundance of technology to make us more productive, we’re still up against the limitations of human biology, Yousef said.

“We have at our disposal all of this amazing modern technology—Slack and Gmail and smartphones—and yet we’re trying to use these new tools with ancient technology: the human brain and the human body,” said Yousef, a cognitive neuroscientist and member of the Berkeley-Haas professional faculty. “There are fundamental biological laws that we are bound to, but we fight them instead of pausing to understand how to make these old and new technologies work together.”

There are fundamental biological laws that we are bound to, but we fight them instead of pausing to understand how to make these old and new technologies work together.  —Sahar Yousef

The evening & weekend MBA students who had signed up for her class, “Becoming Superhuman: The Science of Productivity and Performance,” were more than ready to take that pause. It was the second time the elective had been offered, and it was once again oversubscribed. On the first day of class, each of the 50 students received a binder with findings from a pre-assessment that measured—among many other things—their ability to focus, how well they prioritize, and their risk of burnout. They learned, too, about their genetically determined sleep-wake cycles, and how their results compared to their peers.

Then, over the course of four Sunday afternoons, Yousef and co-lecturer Lucas Miller helped students learn about and implement research-based strategies for working more efficiently and effectively. (The course moved online after the first session, when the spreading coronavirus pandemic forced the cancellation of in-person classes.)

Lucas Miller & Sahar Yousef
Lucas Miller and Sahar Yousef teaching over Zoom.

Focus sprints and the science of habit formation

Students discovered how to structure their workdays to take advantage of times when their minds are most alert. They practiced “focus sprints”—50-minute stretches of defined work free from distractions (both visual and auditory). They each completed a deathbed exercise to identify life goals and how to stay on track to achieve them. They learned about research finding that meditation changes the physical structure of the brain, increasing cortical thickness and  potentially slowing cognitive decline over time. They discovered, too, the science behind new habit formation.

The insights were at times surprising. A 2017 study, for example, found that if someone can see a smartphone nearby—even if it’s not her own and even if it’s turned off—their cognitive performance will suffer. People intuitively know from looking at someone whether they are sleep deprived, and are more likely to think they are not trustworthy or smart. Bedrooms should be kept at about 65 degrees for optimal sleep (especially for men).

When the students completed an assessment at the end of the class, the results showed that as a group, they improved across key measures of performance and productivity, including a greater ability to focus and manage priorities. While 86% of students reported that they used to check their phones throughout the day “just to check it”, only 30% of them reported doing so by the time the course ended. They reported their uninterrupted focus time increased more than 50%, from 85 minutes to 135 minutes. Nearly every student said they now accomplish their top priorities for the day, compared to only a third of students at the beginning of the course.

Mailynh Phan, EWMBA 21 and the CEO of Napa-based RD winery, signed up for the course after feeling overwhelmed by distractions and not finishing what she set out to do each day. Now, she said, “I understand how my biology works and how I can harness it to my advantage.”

Defining peak performance

One of the challenges that Yousef and Miller faced in designing the course was definitional. The course is fundamentally about a concept they call “sustainable peak performance,” but they understood that, in practice, it would mean different things to different people.

“Productivity and performance are intrinsically vague concepts,” said Miller. “For a sales person, greater productivity could mean they’re having more or better customer conversations. To an engineer, it could mean ‘Don’t interrupt me, no meetings.’ To a parent it could mean ‘I just want my kids to leave me alone for an hour.’”

A "Sustainable Peak Performance" slide from the Becoming Superhuman class
A Zoom screenshot of a slide from the Becoming Superhuman course.

For this reason, sessions were broken up into specific themes, with differing time scales. This meant the first class was devoted to the 24-hour cycle and how students, through focus sprints and other methods, could better use their brains and bodies to get more done in fewer hours. The second class session was about performing at peak levels, and the idea that working faster and with more focus doesn’t mean much if the effort is not directed toward top priorities or goals that are personally meaningful. The third meeting centered on the science of aging and lasting habit formation. The final session was about integrating course concepts into work teams and managing and developing other people.

Everything Yousef and Miller taught was grounded in applied science. “I can’t imagine a course about how to work and live more efficiently and effectively without data to back it up,” said Yousef. “Otherwise it’s just a Tony Robbins event.”

I can’t imagine a course about how to work and live more efficiently and effectively without data to back it up—otherwise it’s just a Tony Robbins event.  —Sahar Yousef

“Life-changing” strategies & insights

When asked about the course, students used words like “life-changing” and “gamechanger.” Learning about the science behind performance and productivity was crucial to their understanding, they said, along with the course’s focus on practical strategies that were instantly adaptable to their lives.

A slide on avoiding burnout from the Becoming Superhuman course.
Zoom screenshot of a lesson on avoiding burnout from the Becoming Superhuman course.

For Beverly Correa, the sudden shift in March to working from home because of the pandemic proved to be extremely challenging. “By the time the first Friday rolled around, I thought to myself ‘There is no way I’m going to last if I have to do this for two or three months,’” said the J.P. Morgan vice president.

In response, she devised a work schedule that better aligned with her sleep-wake cycle, or chronotype. She had always thought of herself as a morning person, but getting confirmation that she is genetically “AM-shifted” has inspired her to tackle her demanding work earlier in the day. She saves afternoons, when she knows her productivity is likely to ebb, for focus sprints or more routine tasks. Now, she’s meditating and making sure she’s staying hydrated. When it comes to forming new habits, she cuts herself a break: she knows that trying to develop too many at once won’t work.

Correa credits the course with not only keeping her on track during the crisis, but also giving her tools for the long run.

“I don’t know if I’d call myself ‘superhuman’—that seems like a really high bar—but I’m definitely more productive and more intentional about my work and my life,” said Correa, who graduated from the Berkeley-Columbia Executive MBA program in 2013 and was one of 15 alumni who audited the course (out of a record 75 who applied for spots).

I don’t know if I’d call myself ‘superhuman’—that seems like a really high bar—but I’m definitely more productive and more intentional about my work and my life.  —Beverly Correa, BCEMBA 13

Prabhat Dhar, EWMBA 20, re-evaluated his career after taking the class and realizing he wanted to do more to help people in their everyday lives. He recently left his job at a healthcare marketing startup to lead business development at Headspace Health, a unit of the mindfulness and meditation platform provider.

Dhar said the class not only exemplifies the Haas Defining Leadership Principle of Students Always, but also reminds him of why he chose Haas in the first place.

“Haas isn’t just about creating great business leaders and great managers,” he said. “Haas also recognizes the human element and reminds us that we are all on this path as unique individuals, but also together. This class really embodies that spirit.”

Speed counts on coronavirus economic rescue, says Prof. James Wilcox

Closed due to coronavirus
Photo: Gwengoat for Getty Images

*Updated March 16

Former Fed Economist and Prof. James Wilcox is a longtime observer of federal fiscal policy, monetary policy, and the economy. A professor of finance and economic analysis and policy, Wilcox served as a senior economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors from 1990 to 1991, as an economist with the Federal Reserve from 1991 to 1992, and as chief economist for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency from 1999 to 2001. His research focuses on small business lending, banking, and consumer spending.

Wilcox shared his perspective on the week’s stock market whiplash as well as what the Fed and the government can do to cushion the widening economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic.  

Prof. James Wilcox
Prof. James Wilcox

President Trump on Friday declared a national emergency that will free up $50 billion in aid, and stocks mostly bounced back from Thursday’s crash. Will the national emergency status help economically?

The emergency declaration allows for some helpful actions right away. Much more will need to be done. The declaration was also valuable if it signals that the Administration will be doing much more than it has so far. We have a serious problem. It calls for large, rapid responses. 

The Administration can help by using fiscal policies now. Speed counts. The old saying that ‘a stitch in time saves nine’ holds for financial markets, businesses, and households if they have their operations or cash flows disrupted. Getting more help sooner to those who are more impacted can avoid more pain for them and can avoid taxpayers’ paying more to help more later. 

The sooner the government acts, the better—and the cheaper—it will be for all of us.

The House passed a coronavirus emergency relief bill Friday night that includes two weeks of paid sick leave for some workers and up to three months of paid family and medical leave, $1 billion in grants to states to help pay unemployment insurance, and some food assistance. The Senate will take it up this week. What kind of policies do you think are most needed right now?

We want to get the most immediate help to those facing the most pressing pains. If supplies and demands contract as much as now seems likely, there will be real cash crunches for some big and small businesses, for higher-income households and lower-income households. Some businesses will have serious shortages of customers, and perhaps of materials and parts as well. Some households will have their hours or jobs cut. They may face serious cash, or liquidity, shortfalls—they may become “ill-liquid.” Policies should be adopted now that will be ready and able to provide financial triage. When illiquidity turns into insolvency, it causes many more problems. The sooner they can get help, the less they will need—’a stitch in time.’ 

One policy that could greatly help is government loan guarantees. The law passed about two weeks ago authorizes about $50 billion more SBA-guaranteed loans to small businesses harmed by the virus crisis. And some much larger companies may warrant help too. Most visibly being hammered by the corona crisis are airlines, hotels, and, of course, cruise companies. They won’t be the only ones. This emergency may well call for a program akin to a Large Business Administration that can quickly provide funds for large businesses. 

These policies can be really valuable to businesses and households. They can also benefit the nation. Nonetheless, they do impose costs and risks on taxpayers. Hard-headed, helpful policies need not be give-aways like tax breaks. For example, a payroll tax cut—which has been discussed—is aimed at entirely the wrong group of people. To be paying payroll taxes you need to be working. It is the businesses that are hurt by this crisis and cannot afford to keep employees that we should aim at. We want to help the workers who have lost hours or jobs, and the businesses that are in danger of going under. 

 Policies funded by taxpayers can be more like investments. In the 2008 financial crisis, taxpayers got too little in return for the enormous costs and risks their government took on their behalf. 

It’s not inevitable, but a recession now appears pretty likely for the U.S. economy.

Last week you commented that “darkening clouds have now come over the economy.” Is a recession inevitable at this point?

It’s not inevitable, but a recession now appears pretty likely for the U.S. economy. The more nations that impose widespread restrictions like lockdowns, the more likely that we have a global recession.

With appropriate policies, a recession in the U.S. could be shorter and shallower than usual. A lot depends on how the virus situation is handled and proceeds. At this point, forecasting the economy requires a guess about how effectively medical tests get distributed and used, how well our medical system can handle the volume of patients requiring some or a lot of care, and so on. I really don’t know much about the severity or probabilities of the various virus scenarios. Even forecasting what policies will get enacted is problematic.

But, anyone’s forecast for the economy will have to change if we keep getting surprises, good or bad, about the policies and management of the corona crisis. The larger and the sooner our fiscal response, the less likely that we have a recession this year or next. The early performance on health and economic policies has not been good, but they both show signs of improving.

Why do you say a recession could be shallower and shorter this time (with that big if)?

It is our good luck that the virus arrived here when our economy is on very solid footing. There have been few serious excesses, imbalances, or problems. Growth has been steady and unemployment low. We haven’t had a recession in over a decade. If the economy were ever going to withstand a shock, this is one of the better times. The job market has been very strong. Households’ finances have improved greatly. Housing has been strong. The same applies to businesses. After-tax profits have been very strong for a very long time. Even state and local government budgets have been in good shape lately. And, the financial system is really solid. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, when problems erupted in—and were made worse by—financial institutions, this time around, the financial sector is in very solid shape. It’s strong enough to cushion some of the jolt to households and businesses. In the previous crisis, instead of being shock absorbers, financial institutions did the shocking. 

Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, when problems erupted in—and were made worse by—financial institutions, this time around, the financial sector is in very solid shape.

Yet last week, stocks were crashing, and bond yields weren’t rising as they usually do. That led some to say the system is more fragile than it appears. What was going on?

The size and suddenness of the recent stock market declines built up some frictions in financial markets, especially in credit markets. That’s why the Federal Reserve was right to pledge an essentially unlimited availability of cash for financial markets to borrow. The Fed has also jumped in to buy lots of longer-term Treasurys when it appeared that even those bonds were suffering from illiquidity. These two operations have both lubricated the frictions in credit markets and signaled that it’s ready to act quickly and decisively if need be. The result is that borrowing rates will be lower than if the Fed had not acted.

The Fed is expected to drop interest rates to zero. How much will interest rate cuts help stem the crisis?

*Update: The Fed cut interest rates to near zero in an emergency move Sunday.

The Fed cut interest rates by half a percent just a short time ago. And, now there is a very good chance that it will just cut short-term rates to zero. Every little bit helps. And longer-term rates are now much lower than they were over the past year. Mortgage rates are down by a full percentage point. And that has already touched off a refinancing boom that will leave homeowners with more to spend elsewhere. The lower rates may also draw in more home buyers, too. 

The Fed has done what it should do, which is lubricate and reassure financial markets, and the rest of us. But there are real limits to what it can do. In this situation, lower interest rates will not be the solution for workers who lose hours or jobs, or for businesses that lose customers. Making funds available to those who are cash-strapped will be. Whether assistance comes via paid sick leave, unemployment checks, government-guaranteed loans, or some other form is the province of fiscal policy. The sooner the government acts, the better—and the cheaper—it will be for all of us.

 

Do multinational corporations exploit foreign workers? Q&A with David Levine

A garment factory in Southeast Asia. Photo credit: Liuser for Getty Images

In trade debates, multinational corporations are often cast as villains exploiting low-wage workers in countries with weaker labor laws at the expense of Americans. But do multinationals actually exploit foreign workers?

Dean Ann Harrison, Prof. David Levine and three co-authors recently reviewed the evidence in a paper for the Brookings Institute. It’s part of a larger effort that enlisted prominent academics to better understand the many questions that have been raised about the role of multinationals in the global economy—from tax avoidance to job loss to their contributions to economic growth.

Harrison is one of the most highly cited researchers on multinational firms, offshoring, and the effects of direct foreign investment on developing countries. Levine is a labor economist and chair of the Haas Economic Analysis and Policy Group who has studied effects of industrialization on health and education in developing countries.

David I. Levine
Prof. David Levine

To answer the question of whether multinationals exploit foreign workers, Levine, Harrison, and their co-authors reviewed the current academic research. In areas where it was sparse, they also looked to research by groups such as the International Labor Organisation, World Bank, Oxfam, and Human Rights Watch.

We spoke with Levine to get the big picture on their findings.

 

You started this project by defining what exploitation means. How did you do that?

There are many different approaches to thinking about a complicated concept like exploitation, and we looked at it in three ways. The most straightforward is asking whether workers are worse off than they would be had they not worked for the multinational company. But a simple measure such as whether they’re paid better than the alternative may still fall short of what many observers would consider fair. There are lots of other definitions of exploitation, such as taking advantage of someone’s weak bargaining power to offer them a worse deal. So, a second approach is asking whether workers are being paid a “fair share,” given that they’re often producing products that are quite valuable.  Different stakeholders and philosophers have different definitions of what a “fair share” means.  And then a very different approach is, rather than looking at how workers treated relative to someone else, but aksing whether their employers are respecting their fundamental human rights. Almost every country with multinationals has signed on to the core labor standards of the International Labor Organisation (ILO), which include prohibitions on slavery, child labor, and discrimination against women, and gives workers the right to join a union. By this definition, exploitation simply means not respecting human rights.

If these firms were paying twice what workers got elsewhere, we wouldn’t expect to see so many quit. So it doesn’t appear that workers feel these jobs are particularly cherished.

To clarify, when we’re thinking about the question of exploitation, we’re usually thinking about the companies operating in lower-income or developing countries. How do these companies do on wages?

There’s pretty strong evidence that on average these workers are not being exploited in the sense that they could earn more elsewhere, on average. Multinationals do not typically pay less than domestic firms. In fact, they typically pay more, and sometimes meaningfully above market wages. But larger firms often pay higher wages, and multinationals tend to be large firms. It’s usually pretty easy for these companies to hire, and it’s not surprising that we see migration from the countryside towards these factories. But we also see quite high turnover in most of the factories where we do have data, which means the workers aren’t feeling super overpaid. If these firms were paying twice what workers got elsewhere, we wouldn’t expect to see so many quit. So it doesn’t appear that workers feel these jobs are particularly cherished.

We’re in a time of growing inequality. How did you look at exploitation from the perspective of whether workers get a “fair share”?

Many philosophers and citizens would agree the world would be a better place on average if poor people were a little less poor, even if that means rich people have to pay a little bit more for luxury goods. To the extent that these branded companies like Nike, Nordstrom, or Apple are making a lot of profits, it seems fair to many people for them to pay above-market wages in poor countries. And although it does look like multinationals pay a little bit higher on average, there is not evidence that they are systematically sharing a lot of the surplus. The wages in most studies are not a whole lot higher than people would earn elsewhere. And there’s a lot of turnover, which is not what you expect if you’re sharing a meaningful amount of your surplus. If you see a branded product from Apple, Nike or whatever, the assembly workers received a very small share of that value.

Does that, in your view, constitute exploitation?

I am one of many people who thinks that if poor people producing goods for rich people got paid a bit more, and rich people paid a little bit higher prices for luxury goods, the world would be a bit more fair and just.

There’s strong evidence that there are tragically high levels of exploitation in terms of violations of basic human rights, and women are especially vulnerable.

Where does the evidence lie on the question of human rights violations?

There’s strong evidence that there are tragically high levels of exploitation in terms of violations of basic human rights, and women are especially vulnerable. For a young woman to go work in an apparel factory in many parts of the world puts her at high risk of sexual harassment or much worse. There isn’t evidence that multinationals are worse at stopping sexual harassment or abuse than domestically owned firms, but having lower rates of sexual harassment doesn’t let them off the hook. They’re still violating these fundamental human rights that everyone agrees to.

There is not much evidence of severe violations such as slavery—meaning people being forced work for no pay—athough there’s evidence of workers having to work overtime without pay, and evidence of suppression of labor organizing. Health and safety violations are common. There are also well-documented cases of some multinationals providing worse conditions to migrant workers than to local citizens.

Over the past decade, Western-based multinationals have almost universally adopted zero-tolerance policies against child labor in their affiliates and supply chains. There have been improvements, but enforcement is variable and violations are still uncovered. Audits at factories don’t uncover things like employees bringing work home for their children, which some reports have found.

The term multinational covers a wide range of companies. Did you look at variations?

There are several dimensions of variation. The scattered evidence shows companies headquartered in countries with higher labor standards such as Northern Europe treat their workers better on average than companies headquartered in low-wage countries like China or India that have less consistent labor standards themselves. It also depends where you on the supply chain. Suppliers tend to have lower standards than the multinationals themselves. A supplier to a supplier to a supplier tends to have lower benefits, if any.

For consumers, knowing that a multinational company produced a product tells little about the living standards or human rights of the workers who made it. Sometimes the nation of origin is a more valid indication. For example, few workplaces in Saudi Arabia or Kazakhstan respect the core International Labor Organisation agreements that those nations agreed to.

In the paper, you state that while activism targeting individual companies can improve working conditions, it may not be the most effective approach to combat exploitation overall. Why?

Multinationals are more visible internationally. So to protect their brands, they may find it profitable to treat workers a bit better. Thus, activism against these companies can have an impact. But fundamentally, multinationals employ only a modest share of the workforce of poor countries, and only a subset of those multinationals are producing high-visibility luxury goods for prosperous people. The problem is that if one brand starts paying a lot more than the market wage and raises their prices, they could lose their market share. Even if one could solve the coordination problem and get them all to treat their workers better, that would still leave the bulk of workers at multinationals that aren’t delivering luxury goods, and also at the domestic firms where the bulk of workers are always going to be.

To the extent that multinationals can help countries improve their regulations and their anti-discrimination policies or environmental enforcement, we could imagine some useful improvements. And if multinationals are promoting corruption and non-transparent governance and favoritism, they are worsening the system and should be held accountable.

Even if companies producing expensive branded projects shared more of their surplus with workers, it would not end global poverty. Improving the welfare of vulnerable workers requires broader policies such as improving schools, reducing corruption, and enforcing human rights standards for all employers.

You also looked at the flip side of the problem—whether multinationals hurt workers at home by moving jobs overseas. That’s a whole other large topic, but in brief, is offshoring exploitation?

Here we are moving from the question of exploiting to the question of harming workers. There obviously is a basis for concern. If you were producing clothing or furniture or autos, and your company shut down your factory and opened one in Vietnam, you lose your job. The evidence here is not great, but it does seem like on average the growth of outsourcing and multinationals relocating jobs has been bad for Americans at the middle and bottom of the wage distribution, especially in manufacturing. But every time we see an outsourced job, it doesn’t mean that if you banned outsourcing there would have been one more American job. If I told General Motors they weren’t allowed to close their factory in Michigan and open an engine factory in Mexico, they could have simply gotten more robots in Michigan. Or they could have stopped producing their own engines and just imported them, or they could have not been able to compete and just closed to more of their remaining U.S. factory.

The research doesn’t nail down what share of outsourced jobs would have been lost anyway, but it’s a reasonable estimate that most of them would have disappeared due to technology and automation. Increased import competition is also a factor. So while we should be concerned about job loss and declining demand for medium-skill American workers, the evidence shows that outsourcing is not the main challenge they face.

If I were to meet you at a party and ask “Do multinationals exploit workers,” what would be your short answer?

I would say that they do not do enough for their employees and for the employees of their suppliers to protect basic human rights.

 

How the slave trade’s financial legacy harms Africans today

The global trade in enslaved people is directly linked to distrust in Africa’s financial system.

Elmina Castle and Fortress in Ghana
Elmina Castle and Fortress in Ghana was a center of the West African slave trade. (Photo: M.Torres for Getty Images)

Nearly two-thirds of Africa is “unbanked” and has no relationship with a financial institution—one of the highest rates in the world, according to the World Bank. The rapid rise of mobile money sent through smartphones is steadily boosting financial inclusion across the continent, but the lack of access to traditional banking accounts and loans is depriving millions of Africans of the ability to save and borrow money they could use to start a business or move to a neighborhood with better schools.

This poor access to financial services has a multiplier effect far beyond savings and lending, affecting everyday life including employment options, says Berkeley Haas Prof. Ross Levine. “How well the financial system operates can shape an individual’s overall socioeconomic horizon, even if that person never takes out a loan,” he says.

Many scholars have looked at the myriad reasons for the lack of financial inclusion in Africa, ranging from poverty to the effects of colonialism. In the first study of its kind, forthcoming in The Economic Journal, Levine and two coauthors have pinpointed another important factor: The devastating impact of the global slave trade that gripped Africa most intensely from 1400 to 1900.

Broken trust

When Africans were captured from their villages and sold into lives of toil in faraway countries—often by other Africans who sold enslaved people to Europeans, Arabs, and Indians—the trust of those who remained in their neighbors and in institutions fundamentally broke down. The fact that this distrust could linger so long after slavery faded was a surprise to Levine. “I would have thought that institutions, social coherence, and trust would have had plenty of time to emerge once the slave trade ended,” he says.

To measure the connection between the African slave trade and trust in financial institutions, Levine and his colleagues analyzed data about the intensity of slave trading within 51 countries as well as within 186 ethnic groups. To isolate the effect of the slave trade, the researchers controlled for a number of factors that could have influenced the results, such as a country’s legal system and how long it has been independent, as well as individual-level factors such as education, income, and age of the population.

The study showed a strong, negative correlation between the intensity of a country’s historical exposure to the slave trade and the rate that households currently own or use an account or debit card at a bank or other formal financial institutions; save money at formal financial institutions; obtain short-term loans, credit cards, or mortgages from banks; and use the internet or mobile phones to make financial transactions. They also cross-checked the country-level results with results by ethnic group, finding that ethnicities with higher rates of enslavement also had higher rates of mistrust in the financial system.

To quantify the magnitude of the effect, the researchers examined a hypothetical scenario in which one group of countries that had a relatively higher intensity of slave trading (such as Sierra Leone, Malawi, Ethiopia, and Guinea) suddenly became much more like countries that had a relatively lower intensity of slave trading (countries such as Burundi, Zimbabwe, Niger, and South Africa). In that scenario, the probability that the average person would have saved at a bank, received a bank loan, or made a transaction with a mobile money account would have increased by 50%. In a continent with a low starting point for participation in the financial system, that represents an increase in financial inclusion of millions of Africans.

Wide variation in financial participation

Along with the high-level macroeconomic impacts, the study showed considerable variation across countries in the real world:

  • Credit card use in Mauritius and South Africa—where the slave trade was less intense—was greater than 16%, while it was below 0.5% in Madagascar, Sudan, and Ethiopia, where people were sold into slavery at relatively higher rates.
  • In Mauritius, where the slave trade was negligible, only 0.3% of the respondents indicated a lack of trust in banks.
  • More than 16% of those surveyed had received a loan in the last year in Botswana and Mauritius, which largely escaped the slave trade, while less than 2.5% of survey respondents received a loan in the last year in Guinea, which had a much more intense slave trade. However, loan rates did not match the intensity of slave trading in several other countries (Niger had far lower loan rates than Uganda, though slave trading rates were similar).

All this data shows something else beyond the numbers. “Factors that influence culture have a very long-run, enduring effect on communities,” says Levine. “Culture exerts a first-order impact on many of the economic outcomes that people care about.”

That insight offers some hard lessons for financial services businesses and policymakers, since trust is vital for finance to work, says Levine. Putting your money in a bank involves a certain trust that the legal system and the government are going to properly safeguard your money. Similarly, financial institutions must be able to trust that a loan recipient will pay them back. Without trust, the cost of enforcing every single contract would become overwhelming and reduce the overall availability of credit, and therefore limit economic growth and opportunity.

“Establishing trust is important for financial services companies everywhere, but it is much more difficult to create that trust in countries that had a more brutal experience with slavery.”

Criminal punishment is harshest in racially diverse counties, study finds

Two people walking down a prison corridorWith 5% of the world’s population and 25% of its prisoners, the United States is the most punitive country in the world. Among developed countries, the disparities are even more striking: The U.S. relies on incarceration for 70% of criminal sanctions, while in Germany, it’s 6%.

Why is the U.S. system so harsh?

A new paper by Asst. Prof. Conrad Miller and Benjamin Feigenberg of the University of Illinois at Chicago reveals how diversity, often celebrated as one of America’s foundational assets, might also help explain the punitive nature of its criminal justice system. The paper also offers new insight on the system’s disparate impact on African Americans, who are incarcerated at six times the rate of whites and face longer sentences for similar crimes.

Punishment varies widely between counties

The researchers split their investigation into two steps, looking first at whether punishments differ between counties. They collected county-level data over several years on every criminal arrest in four states—Alabama, Texas, Virginia, and North Carolina. Did the arrest lead to charges? Did the charges lead to formal sentencing? Did the sentence involve jail or prison time? Even when controlling for factors like age, race, and criminal record, they found dramatic variation in how different counties punish the same crime.

“People arrested in the top 25% of counties that are most punitive are two- to four-times as likely to be sentenced to jail or prison than someone who has committed the same offense in one of the most lenient counties,” says Miller, a labor economist and research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research whose research focuses on hiring and discrimination. “There is this huge difference in outcomes, even in the same state, with the same laws on the books.”

Diverse counties more punitive

Next, the researchers investigated a potential explanation for this variation. Prior research shows more diverse locales tend to be relatively miserly with social benefits. The underlying theory suggests that people in racially homogenous places are more willing to pay taxes into social welfare because the beneficiaries are likely to look like them, to be a part of their “in-group.” Perhaps individual preferences around punishment reflect the same bias, they theorized, and punishment is lighter in counties where prospective defendants are likely to be of the same race.

This is precisely what they found. Arrests in jurisdictions that were predominantly white or predominantly black were least likely to result in a jail or prison sentence. The severity of punishments climbed as counties grew more diverse and peaked in jurisdictions roughly that were about 30% black. (Though Miller and Feigenberg looked primarily at black-white racial divides, they noted that some Texas counties with large Latino majorities were among the most lenient.)

Reflection of voter preferences

In theory, at least, this presents a simple fix. “Our results suggest that if all jurisdictions within these four states adopted the policies of the most homogenous jurisdictions, then overall confinement rates would decline by about 15%,” Miller says — a significant figure considering the four states they study comprise roughly 20% of all prisoners confined by states. But how, practically, to make this happen is complicated.

In Miller’s view, the fact that racially diverse counties tend to be most punitive is likely a reflection of voter preferences, for which there is no policy fix. County residents vote prosecutors and judges into office, and these office-holders, in turn, strive to represent the will of their constituents. In racially diverse counties, that means prosecutors push for harsher charges—felony rather than misdemeanor, for example—and judges impose stiffer sentences—prison rather than probation or community service.

No simple fix

These findings also complicate efforts to reduce racial disparities in the U.S. criminal justice system. It would seem that, at least within the states Miller studied, these disparities are in part a result of how populations are distributed. It is more common for large populations of whites to live in overwhelmingly white counties, thereby exposing criminal defendants to relatively lenient systems. Large populations of blacks, on the other hand, tend to live in more racially diverse areas, like Houston, which ends up exposing them to more severe sanctions. In this way, racially unequal punishment is embedded in the geographic spread of populations.

One potential solution, Miller says, is to loosen the bond between voters and prosecutors and judges. That local courts are so tied to local preferences is a peculiar feature of the U.S. criminal justice system, and one that could be changed. Other countries provide models. Still, Miller couldn’t avoid a bit of pessimism when dwelling on the practical takeaway of the work.

“Perhaps there is some kind of broad kumbaya story: If we all had the right interactions at the right point in our lives we wouldn’t think about ‘in groups’ and ‘out groups’ in this particular way,” he says. “But, given the overall results, it’s not clear what the narrow solution to this problem is.”

The paper, “Racial Divisions and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Southern State Courts,” has been conditionally accepted to American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.

 

Prof. Laura Tyson to lead governor’s new economic council

Prof. Laura Tyson, Photo: Karl Nielsen
Prof. Laura Tyson (Photo: Karl Nielsen)

Influential economist Laura D’Andrea Tyson, who served as dean of Berkeley Haas and as a presidential advisor, has been named by Gov. Gavin Newsom to co-chair his new Council of Economic Advisors.

The 13-member panel, announced on Friday, will advise the governor and state finance director on wide-ranging economic issues “and deepen relationships between the administration and academic researchers to keep California moving toward an economy that is inclusive, resilient, and sustainable.”

Tyson will co-chair the council with Fernando Lozano, an economics professor at Pomona College. 

 “I look forward to working with this expert group of advisors to support Gov. Newsom’s goal of fostering inclusive, sustainable, long-term economic growth for all of California,” Tyson said. “As the world’s 5th largest economy and the nation’s leader in innovation and new business formation, California is in a strong position to tackle major economic challenges—including adapting to climate change, creating good job opportunities throughout the state, and reducing homelessness.”

Two other UC Berkeley professors were also appointed: Maurice Obstfeld, the Class of 1958 Professor of Economics who served on President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2014 to 2015 and as chief economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2015 to 2018, and economics and public policy Prof. Hilary Hoynes, the Haas Distinguished Chair in Economic Disparities and co-director of the Berkeley Opportunity Lab. Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, MBA 92, will also serve on the panel.

Gov. Gavin Newsom
Gov. Gavin Newsom (Wikimedia Commons)

“For California to continue thriving, we need our economy to work for everyone in every corner of the state,” Newsom said in a statement. “Our state is experiencing its longest economic expansion, with record-low unemployment—3.9 percent—increases in personal income, and billions in investments, but this expansion has unevenly benefited people across the state. We need to invest for the future, adapt to a changing climate and keep our budget balanced. This Council will keep its pulse on what’s happening in our economy while making policy recommendations to prepare us for what’s to come.”

 An expert on trade, competitiveness, and the future of work, Tyson is a distinguished professor of the graduate school and faculty director of the Institute for Business & Social Impact, which she launched in 2013. She also chairs the board of trustees at UC Berkeley’s Blum Center for Developing Economies, which aims to develop solutions to global poverty. She served as Berkeley Haas interim dean from July to December 2018, and as dean from 1998 to 2001. She led London Business School as dean from 2002 to 2006.

Under the Clinton administration, Tyson served as Chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1993 to 1995 and as Director of the White House National Economic Council from 1995 to 1996. She was the first woman to hold those positions.

Much of Tyson’s recent research focuses on the effects of automation on the future of work. She has also devoted considerable policy attention to the links between women’s rights and national economic performance.

The new council will meet with and advise Gov. Newsom upon request. The group will be guided by the Department of Finance’s Chief Economist Irena Asmundson.