In TEDx talk, professor Juliana Schroeder shares ways to fight loneliness

With approximately 44 million Americans having reported daily feelings of loneliness, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy earlier this year declared that we are facing a “loneliness epidemic.”

Juliana Schroeder, the Harold Furst Chair in Management Philosophy and Values Professor and Barbara and Gerson Bakar Faculty Fellow at Berkeley Haas, explored this crisis in a recent TEDxMarin talk, sharing strategies to fight loneliness and live a more connected life. Schroeder is a behavioral scientist who researches the psychological processes behind how people interact and make social inferences about others.

In fact, Schroeder herself once felt plagued by loneliness. She shared that while riding public transit early in her career, she used to feel particularly disconnected from those around her. Technology is only exacerbating our loneliness, she added.

“Avoidance is easier for us than ever,” she said in her talk. “Online avoidance feels convenient, but it carries an inconvenient consequence.”

“Avoidance is easier for us than ever.”

This “inconvenient consequence” extends beyond the emotional impacts of loneliness. In fact, Schroeder noted a meta-analytic review in the journal PLOS Medicine that found sustained loneliness is potentially as harmful to human health as smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

When people refuse to interact with others and instead retreat into their tech devices, Schroeder explained, the cycle is only perpetuated.

“The paradox of loneliness is that people who are lonely don’t want others to think there is something wrong with them,” she explained. “So they further isolate themselves, creating a cycle of loneliness.”

“The paradox of loneliness is that people who are lonely don’t want others to think there is something wrong with them. So they further isolate themselves, creating a cycle of loneliness.”

Strangers on a train

Schroeder, who also holds affiliations with the Social Psychology Department, Cognition Department, and Center for Human-Compatible AI at UC Berkeley, has explored this paradox in her own research, looking at not only the causes behind the loneliness epidemic but also at potential solutions. When completing her doctorate in social psychology at the University of Chicago, for instance, she ran an experiment inspired by her own experiences on the train.

She found that people expected that talking with a stranger on the train would result in the least positive commute experience—but, in reality, it did the exact opposite. Those who engaged with others on the train reported having the most positive commute experience, leading her to beg the question: Why do people choose to avoid each other if they’d be happier connecting?

One of the main reasons, she finds, is that people tend to overestimate the social risk that comes with connecting with others. Citing the rule of social reciprocity, however, Schroeder noted that nearly all participants received a response when engaging with another person on their commute.

Fostering deeper connections

Curing loneliness is about more than just making small talk—it also requires establishing deeper connections with colleagues, friends, and more. In another study published in the journal Psychological Science, Schroeder found that the medium through which communication occurs is crucial to its quality. That is, voice-based communication like in-person and phone conversations—as opposed to text-based communication like texting, emailing, or DMing on social media—changes how words are received and understood, influences word choice, and affects the synchronicity of exchanges.

In fact, research suggests voice conversations enhance brain wave and heart rate synchrony—the neurological and cardiovascular evidence of psychological alignment.

“Combating loneliness means making the deliberate choice to connect when all you want to do is avoid,” Schroeder concluded. “These choices might feel small, but in aggregate, they have the power to change us from feeling lonely to feeling connected.”

New book explores how companies can navigate a volatile future

Olaf Groth teaches Management of Emerging Technologies to Haas MBA students. (Photo: copyright Noah Berger)

Olaf Groth doesn’t like to make predictions, but he’s nonetheless become adept at helping executives see around corners and navigate the chaos of recent years.

A member of the Berkeley Haas professional faculty, a senior adviser at the school’s Institute for Business Innovation, and the faculty director for the Future of Tech program at Berkeley Executive Education, Groth is also chairman and CEO of thinktank Cambrian Futures.

In a new book, The Great Remobilization: Strategies and Designs for a Smarter World (MIT Press), Groth and coauthors Mark Esposito and Terence Tse (and editor Dan Zehr) focus on what they call the Five Cs—COVID; the cognitive economy, crypto and web 3; cybersecurity; climate change; and China. They show leaders how to power human and economic growth by replacing fragile global systems with smarter, more resilient ones.

In one chapter, the authors imagine a harrowing scenario they call “the Great Global Meltdown of 2028,” the economy collapses after a hack of a critical global payments system in the midst of recurring climate and COVID crises; nearly 1 billion people suffer mental health issues from the strain.

But with the help of the ideas in the book and a bit of practice, leaders can learn to “flip the chaos forward into opportunity,” the authors argue. The book, shortlisted for the Thinkers50 Strategy Award, launches on Oct. 17.

We talked with Groth about how executives can learn to turn turmoil into opportunity.

Your book talks about the need for humanity to make the leap from the “raging 2020s” to a “great remobilization” in the late 2020s and beyond. What will need to happen?

We’re looking at utter volatility over the next 10 years. We can’t afford to sit on the couch and just watch. We have an opportunity now to redesign how business leaders generate growth—both for their shareholders as well as for a broader set of stakeholders—that takes into account how the global economy has changed and continues to change. The book is all about: Where do we go from here? Are we going to accept that we’re going to have a fragmented world where people don’t trust each other, where trade and investment are inhibited, and where growth is limited?

“We can’t afford to sit on the couch and just watch. We have an opportunity now to redesign how business leaders generate growth—both for their shareholders as well as for a broader set of stakeholders—that takes into account how the global economy has changed and continues to change.”

What will the next era of globalization look like amid an era of rising economic nationalism, fragile supply chains, and recurring pandemics and natural disasters?

The globalization everyone keeps talking about is how many bananas get shipped from Argentina to China with the greatest degree of efficiency. And of course that’s important for jobs today. But what we really have to ask is, who controls the flow of any given thing from one place to another? At the end of the day, the people who have the power in what we call the “cognitive economy” can influence these flows. There are traditional flows—of capital, of intellectual property, of people, of goods and services. But there are also new flows of behavioral data, genetic material, and crypto currency. And that’s not even including the ecological flows of energy, air, water, and pathogens.

You define the cognitive economy as a world of algorithms automating or augmenting human decisions and tasks and spinning out valuable insights that can be used to improve businesses, governments, and society. What’s at stake for managers and leaders in a cognitive economic future?

In the cognitive economy, cybernetics functions are getting injected into everything we do—essentially intelligent, digital, command-and-control functions that are at the moment centrally steered by the likes of Google, Amazon, Baidu, and Alibaba. We need to see the new principles bubbling up now from the cognitive economy. Leaders need to be able to perceive the new operating logic in their domain and in their industry.

Take supply chains: 46% of supply chain managers are saying that investments in AI and automating human decisions is their top priority. That means we’ll see new types of integration of human and machine predictions and decisions. Or take the mobility industry. Electrified, autonomous cars use AI to create applications inside the car, and cars are now starting to be tied to a new charging infrastructure around the smart home. You need to design cars like they’re an iPhone: you start with a chip and you build everything around that. Essentially, the automotive industry is being scrambled, as is the energy industry, the home appliances industry, etc. Who controls these complex systems? How do you see those new patterns if you’re an executive any given industry?

Olaf Groth in the classroom teaching his Management of Emerging Technologies class to MBA students. (Photo: copyright Noah Berger)

Your book describes a FLP-IT (forces, logic, phenomena, impact, and triage) model for strategic leadership. How should executives approach the triage step, which requires them to make tough decisions about what to keep, discard, or build from scratch?

I was at the World Economic Forum meeting in Tianjin and a senior executive in the petrochemicals industry told me that after 30 years of building megafactories in China, his company now needed to throw that out the window and create chains of “nanofactories” across 12 different markets to create resiliency. To solve that kind of challenge you need to understand what to invest in and what to divest of. Because strategy is just as much about what you do as it is about what you no longer do.

Most executives are bad at dropping things that they hold dear. They need to make conscious choices.

“Most executives are bad at dropping things that they hold dear. They need to make conscious choices.”

Once you understand the new operating logic in your industry or domain, you need to redraw its boundaries and diagnose changed power relations. To address those changes, you have to then free up resources from activities that are not aligned with the new arena to create new ones that are. For instance, if you are a food conglomerate with most of its agricultural activities in the global south, how will you need to reconfigure that for massive labor migration coming in the face of climate change? Do you have the cognitive technologies, including AI, data science and automation in place to make your supply chains more intelligent, agile and resilient?

You argue that China is an indispensable partner for any global systems redesign. How will leaders in the rest of the world need to reimagine their engagement with a rapidly aging and slowing China while navigating rising economic and military tensions?

Not every investment in China is bad and we’re not advocating for a wholesale withdrawal from all activities in China. That total decoupling is not desirable for anybody. In fact, there are lots of new opportunities for joint solutions that serve both our economic and national security interests as Americans and Chinese. Let’s talk about the fact that China’s coastal cities are as screwed as America’s cities are with sea levels rising. Hundreds of millions of people will be migrating north. That could mean joint investment in climate change mitigation and adaptation solutions, in new approaches to education, in regulating and managing migration, in innovation for public health and early pandemic detection and warning systems.

At some level, we’re going to get down to technologies that are sensitive, like chips and AI. And granted, you can weaponize almost anything these days. But there are technical ways to govern that, design protocols for dispute resolution and risk mitigation. We can watermark and forensically trace content, technical components and code. We can figure out where specialized microchips are going. We can put protocols in place to jointly identify and settle infractions and misunderstandings. It’s not perfect, to be sure. Nothing ever is. But we have to try, because the alternatives are even worse.

So there’s some optimism in your message?

I have a conviction that a lot of these problems are truly solvable with the right design. Executives need to get out there and try things with risk-bounded experiments. This is a craft you can learn. We give leaders a roadmap to lead people into a new future that’s better than one of distrust, fear, and fragmentation.

Study using Airbnb data sheds light on whether incentivizing customer reviews makes a difference

Key Takeaways:

  • Incentivizing online reviews may not give you the types of reviews you want.
  • Incentivized reviews don’t improve—and may even hurt—business.
Illustration showing a key on a keychain shaped like the Airbnb logo next to a cutout paper house
Photo: AdobeStock

New research focused on whether incentivizing would-be online reviewers to post reviews can make a difference for the seller has shed light on the role those reviews play in sales and revenue outcomes.

Researchers worked with Airbnb to conduct a large-scale and costly experiment to find out just how those incentivized reviews impact day-to-day marketing. They found that although incentivizing reviews does lead to an increased number of reviews, the induced reviews tend to be more negative in nature, and have no impact on the number of nights sold or total revenue.

The study published in the INFORMS journal Marketing Science, “Do Incentives to Review Help the Market? Evidence from a Field Experiment on Airbnb,” is authored by Andrey Fradkin of Boston University and David Holtz of the Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley, and the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy.

The Airbnb experiment divided participants into two groups: treatment and control. The treatment group was sent an email offering them $25 Airbnb coupons in exchange for a review if they had not already posted a review within the typical eight or nine days after checkout. The control group was sent an email simply reminding them to leave a review with no financial incentive offered.

“We found that reviews induced by incentives were more likely to contain information about lower quality experiences,” Fradkin says. “We also found that when compared to non-incentivized reviews with the same star ratings, incentivized reviews corresponded to worse guest experiences. In other words, a seller may have received the same star rating from both study groups, but the incentivized guest was more likely to post a negative review, while upholding an inflated star rating.”

“While the incentivized review program impacted the number and type of reviews left by guests, it had neutral-to-negative impacts on the actual business outcomes of the platform and its sellers,” says Holtz. “Incentivized reviews did not affect the total quantity (nights) sold for study listings, but they did cause a change in the composition of those transactions. More to the point, incentivized listings led to more transactions, but those transactions lasted fewer nights on average. Thus, a poorer match.”

The study found that as a consequence, the revenue impacts of incentivized reviews did not represent either a positive or negative material change. Incentivized reviews failed to improve transaction quality, and according to some measures, resulted in worse matches. At the same time, the incentivized treatment did not lead to higher complaint rates or reduced likelihood of repeat business.

“Ultimately, we found that while reviews do play a meaningful role in the overall marketing efforts for online sellers, incentivizing those reviews may not deliver the results many would assume,” Fradkin says.

Read the full study.

About INFORMS and Marketing Science

Marketing Science is a premier peer-reviewed scholarly marketing journal focused on research using quantitative approaches to study all aspects of the interface between consumers and firms. It is published by INFORMS, the leading international association for operations research and analytics professionals. More information is available at www.informs.org or @informs.

This news release has been republished from the INFORMS News Room.

Michelle Florendo, MBA 10
Founder and Principal, Powered by Decisions LLC

Headshot of Michelle Florendo, MBA 10.Michelle Florendo has made a career out of teaching people how to make better, faster decisions and to lead with confidence.

“Most people have never been taught a specific process for decision-making, and yet it’s something that we’re expected to do innumerable times a day,” she says.

The self-described “decision engineer” is the founder and principal of Powered by Decisions, a leadership coaching and training firm. Florendo has coached executives at some of the most influential companies, including Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.

Recently, she taught an MBA workshop at Haas focused on addressing emotions associated with making decisions. “Instead of ignoring the emotions, I teach students how to observe and decipher their feelings and how to either manage those emotions or integrate that data into a structured decision process,” she says.

While business schools teach students frameworks for financial decision-making, people don’t usually get instruction for issues not involving the bottom line, she adds.

Another passion of Florendo’s is working with the Berkeley Executive Coaching Institute where she supports professionals in developing coaching skills.

“It felt like coming full circle because the co-founder of the Institute, Lecturer Mark Rittenberg, introduced me to coaching while I was a student at Haas,” Florendo says. “He helped me understand how much I loved it and how good I’d be at it.”

linkedin.com/in/michelleflorendo

Future Sense

Spotting prescient ideas

Man holding a book open as drops of multicolored ink rain down.

Subtle shifts in how people use language can foretell big changes in how we think about the world. For example, when followers of astronomer Copernicus stopped calling the sun a planet, it signaled the beginning of the end of the belief that the earth was the center of the universe.

Getting out ahead on far-sighted ideas can yield big financial or reputational rewards, but these can be difficult to spot, even though signals about the next big idea may be lurking in everyday language. Advances in natural language processing are now making it possible.

Professor Sameer Srivastava and co-authors have developed a deep learning model that can identify where and when prescient ideas—those that go against convention but later become widely adopted—first emerge.

By parsing millions of public utterances by senators, judges, and executives, they found that far-sighted ideas tend to emerge not from established leaders but rather in the language first used by those on the fringes.

“This is a way to go back and actually find when somebody first used an idea in a way that became prescient,” says Srivastava, whose research with Haas post-doc researcher Paul Vicinanza and Stanford’s Amir Goldberg was published in PNAS Nexus. “Our research suggests there’s a reasonable chance that those people were more likely to be on the periphery of their field.”

Srivastava and his co-authors used a deep neural network known as Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) to unearth the linguistic markers of prescient ideas in politics, law, and business and trace how they became mainstream. They defined prescient ideas as those that are not only novel—words or phrases used for the first time in a new context—but that rethink the dominant assumptions in a particular field. To be considered prescient, the idea must also foreshadow how the domain will evolve in the future.

Political outsiders

Among nearly five million floor speeches delivered by members of the U.S. Congress from 1961 to 2017, the model identified Mississippi Senators John Stennis as the most prescient and James Eastland as the least prescient. Both fiercely opposed civil rights legislation in the 1960s, but the well-connected and powerful Eastland made his case with overtly racist rhetoric. Stennis, meanwhile, was “among the first to base his objections on the principles of ‘color blindness,’ limited government, and individual freedom,” the researchers wrote. This indirect set of arguments proved highly prescient, “laying the groundwork for contemporary conservative talking points on race relations in the U.S.”

The model flagged smaller firms as more prescient than larger, established players. More prescient firms also had above-average stock returns.

Landmark lower courts

The same idea held true for the law. In examining 4.2 million digitized federal and state legal rulings, the researchers found that landmark U.S. Supreme Court decisions, such as legalizing gay marriage or affirming the Affordable Care Act, tended to originate in lower courts. The most prescient decisions—those with the highest number of citations—were 22 times more likely to come from state appellate courts than the U.S. Supreme Court.

Prescient businesses

In the business world, the researchers had a smaller dataset to work with, analyzing transcripts of the Q&A portion of public quarterly earnings conference calls—a relatively recent practice compared to similar records in law and politics. In these calls, managers often reveal strategy not found in press releases or official filings. The model flagged smaller firms as more prescient than larger, established players. More prescient firms also had above-average stock returns. (The authors are doing more work on business figures to expand the data pool.)

Implications

The findings have big implications across many disciplines, says Srivastava, the Ewald T. Grether Professor of Business Administration and Public Policy. One result, he says, may be more recognition for people who have been historically marginalized—such as women and minorities. “They may be the ones generating a lot of the ideas, even if they aren’t getting credit for all of them.”

Negotiation Frustration

Who says women don’t negotiate?

Two women with a speech bubble between them showing hurdles, as for a track meet.

For decades, a closet industry of books and workshops has promised to make women better negotiators and help close the gender pay gap. But new research by Professor Laura Kray shows that believing women don’t ask for higher pay is not only outdated, but it may be hurting pay equity efforts.

“Continuing to put the blame on women for not negotiating away the gender pay gap does double damage, perpetuating gender stereotypes and weakening efforts to fight them,” says Kray, the Ned and Carol Spieker Chair in Leadership.

Last year, women earned about 22% less than men, on average. But broken down by income level, the gap for middle- and lower-wage women has decreased over the past 20 years while the gap for those with higher salaries—where there is often more room for negotiation—has increased.

Women MBA grads earn 88% of what men make after finishing their degree but only 63% of what men make 10 years later, past research by Kray and others has found.

Women Do Ask

The researchers’ survey of a nationally representative sample confirmed the perception that women negotiate less than men and are less successful when they do. Yet when Kray and her co-authors analyzed a survey of students graduating from a top MBA program between 2015 and 2019, they found that significantly more women than men reported negotiating their job offers—54% versus 44%.

The researchers then delved into a 2019 alumni survey of 1,900 MBA grads and found, again, that the women earned 22% less than men. But other than women’s lower pay, the only differences that emerged along gender lines were that more women than men said they had attempted to negotiate—and more women reported being turned down.

“Continuing to put the blame on women for not negotiating away the gender pay gap does double damage, perpetuating gender stereotypes and weakening efforts to fight them.”

Revisiting past conclusions

Kray and her co-authors also used an updated statistical approach to revisit a 2018 meta-analysis of studies on gender and negotiations. Focusing on nine studies published from 1982 to 2015 that measured gender differences in initiation of salary negotiations, they found no difference overall. But when they looked at changes over time, they found that men did report higher rates of negotiating versus women early in the era. The gender difference appeared to disappear around 1994 and reversed beginning around 2007. The trend has continued to grow since then, Kray says.

Many factors may have contributed to women’s greater assertiveness over the past two decades, including the “lean-in” movement sparked by Sheryl Sandberg’s book of the same name. But the downside of such messages has been to “blame the victim,” Kray says—putting the onus on women to fix the pay gap by working more and trying harder.

Another experiment exploring attitudes about the pay gap’s causes and support for solutions found that people who believed more strongly that women’s lower negotiation rates fueled the pay gap for MBA graduates were less likely to support salary-history bans and more likely to justify the current system.

“Negotiating for pay or promotions is clearly beneficial, and there’s room for everyone to do more negotiating,” Kray says. “But it’s time to end the notion that women don’t ask.”