The median price of a Marin home was almost $1.1 million last month, up 14 percent from the previous August, a real estate information service reported Tuesday.
Condo prices in Marin also jumped 14 percent year-over-year, according to Irvine-based CoreLogic, with an August median of $592,000.
Across the Bay Area, prices for resale single-family homes increased in every county except Santa Clara, where prices were flat. Marin and Solano saw the highest jumps compared with August 2015; prices were up 14 percent in both counties. The median price of a Marin home was $1,097,500 last month.
In contrast, prices in San Francisco edged up a mere 1 percent this August compared with August 2015. Price jumps and drops in the Bay Area generally begin with San Francisco and radiate throughout the area.
“The rate of increase in appreciation is starting to level off,” said Peter Nielsen, an agent with Marin Realty Experts. “The upper range is softening. Also, I’m seeing price decreases once in a while.”
Nielsen said the decreases are probably “more a case of someone operating under the assumption that the appreciation is skyrocketing and they are trying to hit that next level.”
Instead, Nielsen said, “it may be time for sellers to take a more realistic look at their pricing and not keep trying to break the record.”
Some industry experts, including Kenneth Rosen of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley, in late 2015 predicted a coming correction. The slowing appreciation in San Francisco — for example, prices increased 9 percent year-over-year in San Francisco in July — could be a sign this is happening.
“Hopefully things will just gradually get into more of a balanced market between buyers and sellers,” Nielsen said.
The agent added that while the upper range is softening, “Especially in the lower-priced homes, sellers still have the upper hand because there are still simply more buyers out there than there are homes to purchase.
“I listed a San Rafael tract home for $899,900 a couple weeks ago and we got six offers, all over $900,000, two of them all cash,” Nielsen said.
With regard to the effect of San Francisco prices on the rest of the area, “Vallejo is the hottest city in the country for real estate appreciation,” Nielsen said.
“People who couldn’t afford San Francisco moved to Oakland, people who couldn’t afford Oakland moved to Richmond and people who couldn’t afford Richmond moved to Vallejo. The ripple has hit the other end of the shore,” Nielsen said.
Vallejo was rated the hottest city in the country in June by Realtor.com, the official publication of the National Association of Realtors.
Gene Laico, a Bradley Real Estate agent, agreed with Nielsen about the market’s direction.
“It’s leveling off. It’s not going top or bottom; it seems to be bouncing around a plateau,” Laico said.
The Marin median price for single-family homes might be $1.2 million one month and $1.25 million the next, he said, always hovering around the same price.
The leveling off will continue this year, he predicted, “and could go down a little because we’re starting into the winter months, so the home sales market is going to slow a little more.”
Winter is traditionally a slow season for real estate.
Eric McFarland of Pacific Union agreed with the “concentric circle” view of San Francisco. “San Francisco is the epicenter of our market, then you go out to Marin, out to the East Bay, out to the peninsula,” he said.
“It’s like a seismic chart, a circle and it goes out, out, out,” McFarland said.
The agent said he wasn’t seeing a slowdown in appreciation.
McFarland attributed this to factors including interest rates and the lack of new development in Marin.
“Interest rates are at record lows,” he said. “Desirable property is still in high demand.”
