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Haas News

MAGAZINE SPRING 2026

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Traffic Signals

A UC Berkeley Haas and Stanford GSB study of more than 1,000 major companies finds that website traffic can forecast revenue and stock prices months before earnings—more accurately than traditional metrics alone. Wall Street, the researchers say, is leaving money on the table.

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Featured Researcher

Yaniv Konchitchki

Associate Professor, Accounting

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Featured Researcher

Biwen Zhang

Assistant Professor, Accounting

By

Laura Counts

Photograph by

iStock

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With e-commerce projected to account for 40% of global retail sales by 2027, a new study from UC Berkeley Haas and Stanford GSB uncovered something Wall Street has been missing: Website traffic can forecast revenue and stock prices months before earnings announcements—and more accurately than traditional metrics alone.

The effect is driven by companies like Amazon, Netflix, or Tesla whose websites sell things or deliver digital products, according to The Accounting Review study. 

“We found that stock prices do not fully incorporate digital traffic information—Wall Street is leaving money on the table,” says Associate Professor Yaniv Konchitchki, who co-authored the study with Assistant Professor Biwen Zhang and a Stanford colleague. 

The study, based on digital traffic data from over 1,000 of America’s largest companies, representing roughly 90% of the U.S. stock market’s capitalization, found websites are both a real-time and a forward-looking gauge of financial health. Companies with surging web visits consistently beat revenue estimates—and investors who traded on traffic trends earned substantial above-market returns. 

The mispricing was particularly pronounced among companies owned mostly by individual investors rather than giants like mutual funds and hedge funds—and even they aren’t fully exploiting it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can website traffic predict a company’s stock price?

A study from UC Berkeley Haas and Stanford GSB, published in The Accounting Review, found that website traffic can forecast a company’s revenue and stock price months before earnings announcements—more accurately than traditional metrics alone. Companies with surging web visits consistently beat revenue estimates, and investors who traded on traffic trends earned above-market returns.

Which companies does the website-traffic effect apply to?

The effect is strongest for companies whose websites sell products or deliver digital services, such as Amazon, Netflix, and Tesla. The study drew on digital traffic data from more than 1,000 of America’s largest companies, representing roughly 90% of the U.S. stock market’s capitalization. Mispricing was especially pronounced among companies held mostly by individual rather than institutional investors.

Has Wall Street priced in website traffic data?

According to co-author Yaniv Konchitchki, stock prices do not fully incorporate digital traffic information, so the market is leaving money on the table.

The Takeaway

A company’s website traffic can predict its financial performance and stock price more accurately than traditional metrics alone—but the data is costly to gather, and Wall Street hasn’t fully caught up.

Posted in:

Research

Topics:

Accounting

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