Good Judgment – Study in Prediction Seeks Volunteers

The Haas School, led by Associate Professor Don Moore, is participating in a national competition that will test five competing faculty teams on who can make the best forecasts of global trends and world events over the next four years.

Moore is leading a Berkeley-Haas/Penn team with Haas Professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, who are currently visiting professors at Wharton. The Berkeley-Haas/Penn team called “Good Judgment,” is now recruiting volunteers for what’s promised to be an “intellectually stimulating experience.”

Volunteers will have the opportunity to work with state-of-the-art techniques designed to augment accuracy and will receive feedback on how well calibrated their judgments are in relation to others’. They should be interested in world affairs, politics, and global economic matters and have the opportunity to earn an annual honorarium of $150.

The competition is being run by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity, an agency that invests in high-risk and high-payoff research programs that have the potential to provide the nation with an overwhelming intelligence advantage over future adversaries. The agency reports to the director of science and technology in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

The research project is an unprecedented, multidisciplinary effort seeking to understand how people use their knowledge to develop expectations about the future. In doing so, participants discover processes and strategies that lead to success.
Moore, an expert in overconfidence, says, “In short, we think the project will be fun. If we were not running it, we would volunteer ourselves!”

Tetlock is the author of the award-winning book Expert Political Judgment.Mellers applies psychology to business issues in her studies of judgment and decision-making. Both Tetlock and Mellers have PhDs in psychology.

For more information and to apply, visit